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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."